This article is a joint publication of the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund, the OCHA Humanitarian Financing Strategy and Analysis team and the Centre for Humanitarian Data.

In addition to funding sudden onset, escalating and protracted crises, the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) also leads the way in financing anticipatory action (AA). Since 2020, CERF disbursed over $115 million to ten countries, reaching more than 4 million people with assistance before the worst impact of a crisis. Providing humanitarian assistance to people with just a few days of lead time is difficult though, and in some cases (especially for sudden shocks) anticipatory action can be more effective when complemented by early response. While anticipatory action is based on pre-arranged funding and pre-agreed plans and triggers, the approach to acting ahead has also led to acting faster after a crisis has occurred.

Below we provide recent examples of where a proactive approach, based on experience and evidence coupled with the practical use of anticipatory action tools and strategies, has led to improvements in post-disaster response to climate shocks.

Mozambique: Proactive Rapid Response to Tropical Cyclone Chido

On 15 December 2024, Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall in Mozambique affecting an estimated 1.7 million people. The anticipatory action framework for cyclones had not yet been finalized at the time, but five days prior, OCHA had already started monitoring the cyclone track closely based on the ongoing work on the anticipatory action framework. As the cyclone approached the coast of Mozambique, the Emergency Relief Coordinator approved $4 million from CERF two days ahead of the cyclone’s landfall, contingent on the windspeed remaining at dangerous levels as it reached the coast. Upon landfall, the high windspeed was confirmed and the $4 million rapid response allocation was immediately fast-tracked enabling humanitarian partners to promptly launch their response. This approach made this the fastest rapid response allocation in the history of the Fund.

Nampula Province in Northern Mozambique, January 2025. This is an evacuation centre in the coastal village of Cabaceira. UNOCHA Head of Office, UN agencies are conducting a joint visit with the National Institute for Disaster Management (INGD) to assess the damage caused by cyclone Dikeledi, which made landfall in the country on 13 January. The cyclone destroyed over 15,000 houses and 100 schools in the northern part of the country. More than 700,000 people have been affected by cyclones Chido and Dikeledi in Mozambique in January. (UNOCHA/Ruth Matahelumual)

Philippines: Rapid Response to Typhoon Man-yi

On 13 November 2024, the ‘readiness’ trigger for the Philippines anticipatory action framework for storms was activated giving humanitarian partners an early warning for an impending cyclone to prompt their last-minute operational readiness measures ahead of the storm. However, subsequently, the ‘action’ trigger did not activate before the 72-hour lead time required to implement actions ahead of cyclone landfall. Leveraging elements of the pre-agreed framework, CERF collaborated with the Resident Coordinator and agencies to reprogramme $7 million in pre-arranged anticipatory action projects for rapid response following a flexible and practical approach.

Ethiopia: Anticipatory Allocation for Drought

In September 2024, CERF allocated $10 million to humanitarian agencies in Ethiopia to get ahead of a projected drought, benefitting from the ongoing work on a CERF-supported anticipatory framework. When forecasts predicted below-average rainfall in the southeast of the country, CERF promptly made a $10 million anticipatory allocation to mitigate the impact of impending severe drought conditions. This allocation was complemented by $7 million from the Ethiopia Humanitarian Fund. This forward-leaning strategy was aimed at protecting livelihoods and preventing a potential nutrition crisis through the repair of critical water points, promotion of irrigation-based agriculture and provision of livestock feed.

In the absence of a full framework, CERF was still able to act earlier by launching the allocation at a critical time, leveraging existing elements of the ongoing work for the drought AA framework under development. However, a full framework remains the most effective way to implement anticipatory action, and would have allowed for an even earlier, more predictable allocation of funds.

Bangladesh: Rapid Response to Tropical Cyclone Remal

In July 2024, Tropical Cyclone Remal made landfall in Bangladesh. The activation threshold for the existing anticipatory action framework for cyclones was not met. However, as soon as the severity of the impact was understood, partners adapted the pre-developed anticipatory action projects to support immediate post-disaster relief. Using the groundwork laid by the cyclone framework, CERF was able to fast-track a rapid response allocation disbursing $7.5 million shortly after Remal made landfall. This approach cut the typical rapid response disbursement time in half, illustrating once more the added value of investing in anticipatory action frameworks even when they are not activated ahead of time.

The Caribbean: Hurricane Response

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was predicted to be above average with an exceptionally high number of named storms and major hurricanes. The analytical work done by the Centre for Humanitarian Data to establish the monitoring for the Haiti storms/hurricane anticipatory action framework was used to create a regional storm monitoring tool for the entire Caribbean. This proactive monitoring allowed CERF to make faster rapid response allocations immediately following three storms: Hurricane Beryl in July (providing $1.5 million to Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines and $2.5 million to Jamaica); Hurricane Oscar in October (providing $3.5 million for Cuba); and Hurricane Rafael in November (providing $6 million to Cuba).

Grenada, 6 July 2024. Damage in Petite Martinique. Hurricane Beryl caused severe damage to infrastructure, services and livelihoods in Grenada, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Jamaica. (UNOCHA/Jolene Muir)

Conclusion

These examples show how investments in anticipatory action can help humanitarian partners to be better prepared and respond faster to climate emergencies, even when acting ahead of a shock is not – or no longer – possible. By using forecast monitoring, predictive analytics and proactive planning from AA initiatives, CERF can make allocations as soon as possible, whether that is before a crisis hits or right after its impact is felt, ensuring people are supported in their moment of need.