What is anticipatory action?

Anticipatory action enables humanitarian organizations to get ahead of a shock and mitigate its impact on vulnerable people. Predictive analytics can help anticipate humanitarian needs arising from different shocks. This opens a window of opportunity allowing humanitarians to reduce the overall impact of shocks by acting before needs materialise. Emerging evidence shows that anticipatory action is a more dignified, rapid, and (cost-) effective humanitarian response.


The role of the Centre

The Centre provides support to OCHA and partners to develop the mechanisms that trigger OCHA’s Anticipatory Action Frameworks. The Centre conducts historical analysis, assesses available models and forecasts, and designs trigger mechanisms for anticipatory action. It also acts as a technical translator, ensuring effective communication between modelers and forecast producers, and humanitarian decision makers.

“Through our Centre for Humanitarian Data, OCHA is providing technical expertise to assess forecasts, validate models, and then design trigger mechanisms for Anticipatory Action frameworks. This is detailed technical work and this is one of the areas in which we must invest efforts and indeed at OCHA we are seeking to do so.”
-Martin Griffiths, USG for Humanitarian Affairs and ERC

Current OCHA frameworks

Shock seasons

Additional resources

By Country